Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.096169 0.109875 0.124766 0.142134 0.161828 0.183458 0.209005
2026-01-18 0.077592 0.095937 0.117402 0.144336 0.177196 0.215951 0.265101
2026-01-25 0.059986 0.079827 0.104697 0.138083 0.181649 0.236492 0.310700
2026-02-01 0.046112 0.065841 0.092251 0.130052 0.182623 0.252993 0.354177
2026-02-08 0.036728 0.056094 0.083694 0.125682 0.187699 0.275651 0.409534
2026-02-15 0.029345 0.047818 0.075775 0.120857 0.191371 0.297002 0.466690
2026-02-22 0.025091 0.043467 0.072896 0.123019 0.205733 0.336120 0.556314
2026-03-01 0.020418 0.037548 0.066540 0.118609 0.209102 0.358932 0.624408
2026-03-08 0.016900 0.032913 0.061481 0.115452 0.213981 0.384881 0.701727
2026-03-15 0.014093 0.029003 0.056986 0.112476 0.218646 0.411120 0.783633
2026-03-22 0.012494 0.027077 0.055773 0.115310 0.234301 0.459034 0.911601
2026-03-29 0.010780 0.024578 0.053013 0.114664 0.243213 0.495812 1.024390
2026-04-05 0.009424 0.022617 0.051103 0.115663 0.256122 0.543284 1.167631
2026-04-12 0.008360 0.021085 0.049830 0.117821 0.271911 0.599144 1.337143
2026-04-19 0.006965 0.018478 0.045703 0.112945 0.271748 0.622130 1.441909
2026-04-26 0.005719 0.015952 0.041270 0.106524 0.267005 0.634605 1.526133
2026-05-03 0.004846 0.014182 0.038305 0.103065 0.268597 0.661505 1.647438
2026-05-10 0.004095 0.012564 0.035398 0.099190 0.268503 0.684545 1.763644
2026-05-17 0.003699 0.011858 0.034740 0.101061 0.283298 0.745569 1.981498
2026-05-24 0.003152 0.010574 0.032246 0.097478 0.283193 0.769832 2.111742
2026-05-31 0.002723 0.009543 0.030254 0.094914 0.285403 0.800380 2.263185
2026-06-07 0.002360 0.008635 0.028435 0.092488 0.287572 0.831198 2.420405
2026-06-14 0.002174 0.008276 0.028217 0.094862 0.304098 0.903471 2.702023